{"id":4506,"date":"2025-03-31T17:42:45","date_gmt":"2025-03-31T15:42:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/reussprivate.com\/?p=4506"},"modified":"2025-12-08T15:51:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-08T14:51:19","slug":"outlook-2025-update-q2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/reussprivate.com\/en\/2025\/03\/31\/outlook-2025-update-q2\/","title":{"rendered":"Market Outlook 2025 \u2013 Update Q2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Structural Environment<\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High indebtedness + adverse demographic developments + low productivity growth = low global trend growth. Among other things, the high level of indebtedness leads to a more unequal distribution (Gini index). This is one of the reasons for shifts in political constellations (polarization).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Re-nationalisation of economic and social policies. Stronger focus on distributional effects within countries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Supply shortages in labour markets are easing only gradually.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A de-dollarisation and possible decoupling from the West of an enlarged BRICs group seems possible, but this would result in two newly competing currency systems.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Geopolitical tensions \u2013 especially the conflicts in the Ukraine and in the Middle East \u2013 remain heightened.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The polarisation between the &#8220;West&#8221; and the &#8220;Global South&#8221; can make it more difficult to finance Western debt in the long term \u2013 also due to the confiscation of state assets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong>Economy<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Global growth is recovering slightly. Compared to the past decade, macro-economic volatility and nominal growth remain elevated for longer.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The long-term outlook for the US economy remains favourable given its high trend growth, but there are signs of a temporary period of weakness due to President Trump&#8217;s economic policies. <\/strong>We see a subdued growth environment across Europe. China&#8217;s weak domestic demand but growing production capacities threaten the industrial sectors in the advanced economies.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Inflation and interest rate cycles have been synchronized globally since the pandemic but will diverge more strongly again in the future.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Both the Fed and the ECB will likely cut rates by less than is generally expected.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the longer term, (government-led) investment should increase and support growth.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong>Influencing factors<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Geopolitical risks (i.e. Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Taiwan and Turkey) have increased and will remain elevated for a prolonged period. This reinforces the deglobalization trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Fiscal policy will remain expansionary, and no austerity policy is likely to be pursued.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Political risks, with the potential for long-term very adverse outcomes, remain substantial, especially amid the ascent of EU\/Euro critical parties in Europe and protectionist measures by the US government. Global risks, and thus the potential for markedly negative long-term scenarios, remain pronounced. <strong>The risk of a technological decoupling between the US and China and an economic bloc building has increased.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>An escalation of the global trade war \u2013 especially between the US and China \u2013 will have lasting consequences and will ultimately be a burden for global growth and financial markets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Birth rates have fallen sharply recently. This can lead to social tensions and put additional pressure on trend growth in the longer term.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h6 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong><strong>Market environment<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/h6>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Risk assets are attractive in the long term. However, due to diverging economic cycles, a selective allocation is advisable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The outlook for equities is volatile and accompanied by pronounced setbacks but remains fundamentally positive in the long term. Corporate profits can increase and will be the main contributor to a positive performance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The trend towards sustainable investments and &#8220;green finance&#8221; will intensify across all asset classes in the coming years.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yields of \u201csafe&#8221; bonds such as German Bunds and US Treasuries will trade sideways on a multi-year horizon.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>With rate cuts, spread products become more attractive. Carry and roll-down remain important for fixed income investors.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Positive for the US dollar. Cautious with EM currencies. Long-term downside risks for the Euro and the British pound.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Longer term friendly environment for precious metals.ecious metals.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>You can download the detailed market outlook with an update for Q2 2025 <a href=\"https:\/\/reussprivate.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Outlook-2025-Update-Q2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Structural Environment Economy Influencing factors Market environment You can download the detailed market outlook with an update for Q2 2025 here.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"articletype":[74,79],"class_list":["post-4506","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","articletype-blog-2","articletype-blog-en"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v24.9 - 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